{"meta":{"title":"Kenya’s Priority Crops to 2035","subtitle":"Demand forecasts, domestic supply capacity, and the assumptions behind the outlook","model":"Methodology-aligned recursive-dynamic partial-equilibrium specification; web paths remain calibrated sensitivity scenarios pending full econometric estimation","forecast_horizon":"2025–2035","source_workbook":"Kenya Ag Priority VCs9.xlsx","generated":"2026-09-11","methodology_note":"Edible-oil forecasting follows the supplied PE methodology: reconciled supply-utilisation accounting, QUAIDS/Gompertz demand specification, Nerlovian area response, logistic yield adoption, explicit oil-content/extraction/refining conversion, processing-capacity constraints, residual imports, and uncertainty validation. The static web package does not contain all microdata/panel/capacity series needed to estimate every coefficient."},"crops":[{"id":"sunflower","name":"Sunflower","role":"Import substitution — edible oil","demand_metric":"Direct sunflower-oil import demand (minimum demand floor)","demand_unit":"MT sunflower oil","demand_method":"Existing multi-factor import-demand series","base_year":2024,"base_value":8949,"current_area_ha":40675,"current_raw_production_mt":41288,"current_yield_t_ha":1.0150706822372464,"area_cap_ha":120000,"cap_classification":"Planning envelope; no national GIS suitability hectares found","area_targets_2035":{"Low":40675,"Base":70000,"High":120000},"potential_yield_t_ha":2,"conversion_factor":0.342,"conversion_basis":"38% minimum oil content (AFA seed spec) × 90% analyst mill-recovery assumption","maturity_lag_years":0,"priority_counties":["Siaya","Homa Bay","Bungoma","Kakamega","Trans Nzoia","Nakuru","Uasin Gishu","Kitui","Makueni","Machakos","Meru","Lamu","Kilifi","Kwale","Taita Taveta"],"notes":"AFA calls sunflower widely adapted. Direct imports are only a demand floor; broader palm-oil substitution could make the addressable market much larger.","sources":[{"name":"AFA Yearbook of Statistics","url":"https://www.afa.go.ke/wp-content/uploads/2025/08/New-Yearbook-25_.pdf"},{"name":"AFA Edible Oil Crops Promotion Project","url":"https://www.afa.go.ke/edible-oil-crops-promotion-project/"},{"name":"AFA Sunflower Seed Promotion Update","url":"https://www.afa.go.ke/updates/thousands-of-farmers-to-benefit-from-free-sunflower-seeds/"},{"name":"AFA Crop/Seed Specification","url":"https://www.afa.go.ke/download/6622/?tmstv=1767862361"}],"demand":"Multi-factor import-demand forecast anchored to direct sunflower-oil imports. Population and real per-capita income raise demand; higher import prices/FX pressure reduce it. Direct imports are treated as a minimum demand floor.","supply":"Planted area moves linearly toward scenario-specific 2035 targets; yield closes toward 2.0 t/ha in Base/High. Seed output is converted to oil using a 34.2% recovery factor.","key_caveat":"The addressable market is narrower than Kenya’s total edible-oil substitution opportunity.","oil_content":0.38,"extraction_efficiency":0.9,"refining_loss":0.0,"postharvest_loss":0.05,"area_adjustment_speed":0.38,"autonomous_yield_growth":0.01,"attainable_share":0.8,"adoption_midpoint":2030,"adoption_speed":0.75,"pe_status":"calibrated_sensitivity_layer","pe_note":"Physical supply follows the supplied PE identity in the interactive calculator. QUAIDS, Nerlove and price-transmission coefficients require external estimation datasets and are therefore not claimed as econometrically estimated inside this static HTML."},{"id":"canola","name":"Canola","role":"Import substitution — edible oil","demand_metric":"Direct canola/rapeseed-oil import demand","demand_unit":"MT canola/rapeseed oil","demand_method":"Existing multi-factor import-demand series","base_year":2024,"base_value":2289.503,"current_area_ha":4309,"current_raw_production_mt":14384,"current_yield_t_ha":3.338129496402878,"area_cap_ha":15000,"cap_classification":"Planning envelope; no national GIS suitability hectares found","area_targets_2035":{"Low":4309,"Base":8000,"High":15000},"potential_yield_t_ha":3.7,"conversion_factor":0.36000000000000004,"conversion_basis":"40% minimum oil content (AFA seed spec) × 90% analyst mill-recovery assumption","maturity_lag_years":0,"priority_counties":["Nakuru","Laikipia","Meru","Narok","Uasin Gishu","Nyeri","Trans Nzoia"],"notes":"Priority is Upper Eastern/Central/Rift where AFA reports production. Direct imports are a narrow floor versus the broader edible-oil substitution opportunity.","sources":[{"name":"AFA Yearbook of Statistics","url":"https://www.afa.go.ke/wp-content/uploads/2025/08/New-Yearbook-25_.pdf"},{"name":"AFA Edible Oil Crops Promotion Project","url":"https://www.afa.go.ke/edible-oil-crops-promotion-project/"},{"name":"AFA Crop/Seed Specification","url":"https://www.afa.go.ke/download/6622/?tmstv=1767862361"}],"demand":"Multi-factor import-demand forecast anchored to direct canola/rapeseed-oil imports, using the same structural demand logic as sunflower.","supply":"Area expands linearly from 4,309 ha to 8,000 ha in Base and 15,000 ha in High; yield moves toward 3.7 t/ha. Seed is converted to oil at 36%.","key_caveat":"Direct canola imports are a narrow demand floor, not the full edible-oil substitution market.","oil_content":0.4,"extraction_efficiency":0.9,"refining_loss":0.0,"postharvest_loss":0.05,"area_adjustment_speed":0.32,"autonomous_yield_growth":0.008,"attainable_share":0.85,"adoption_midpoint":2030,"adoption_speed":0.7,"pe_status":"calibrated_sensitivity_layer","pe_note":"Physical supply follows the supplied PE identity in the interactive calculator. QUAIDS, Nerlove and price-transmission coefficients require external estimation datasets and are therefore not claimed as econometrically estimated inside this static HTML."},{"id":"coffee","name":"Coffee","role":"Export demand","demand_metric":"Kenya coffee export demand","demand_unit":"MT clean/green coffee","demand_method":"Global-demand path (weather/EUDR excluded from underlying demand)","base_year":2025,"base_value":53376.1,"current_area_ha":113900,"current_raw_production_mt":51400,"current_yield_t_ha":0.45127304653204564,"area_cap_ha":113900,"cap_classification":"Current-area rehabilitation envelope; no expansion assumed","area_targets_2035":{"Low":113900,"Base":113900,"High":113900},"potential_yield_t_ha":0.81,"conversion_factor":1,"conversion_basis":"Clean coffee production and export demand treated in the same MT basis","maturity_lag_years":3,"priority_counties":["Kiambu","Kirinyaga","Nyeri","Murang'a","Embu","Meru","Tharaka Nithi","Kericho","Bungoma","Machakos"],"notes":"KALRO climate limits: about 1,400-2,000 m East of Rift / 1,500-1,900 m West; 15-30°C; roughly 1,000-1,145 mm annual rainfall.","sources":[{"name":"KALRO Coffee Production Guidance","url":"https://kalroerepository.kalro.org/items/f8019c2d-4172-473c-9ab3-87ee9f5f5723/full"},{"name":"International Coffee Organization Annual Review 2024/25","url":"https://www.ico.org/documents/cy2025-26/annual-review-2024-2025-e.pdf"},{"name":"AFA Yearbook of Statistics","url":"https://www.afa.go.ke/wp-content/uploads/2025/08/New-Yearbook-25_.pdf"}],"demand":"Export demand is projected from the 2025 base using global coffee-demand growth scenarios: 0.5% Low, 1.5% Base, and 2.5% High per year.","supply":"No area expansion is assumed. The model rehabilitates productivity on the current 113,900 ha footprint, with yield moving toward 0.81 t/ha.","key_caveat":"Weather and EUDR are treated as supply/market-access risks rather than reductions in underlying global demand.","demand_growth_scenarios":{"Low":0.005,"Base":0.015,"High":0.025}},{"id":"tea","name":"Tea","role":"Export demand","demand_metric":"Kenya tea export demand","demand_unit":"MT made tea","demand_method":"Global black-tea demand path (weather excluded from underlying demand)","base_year":2025,"base_value":653736.1,"current_area_ha":236000,"current_raw_production_mt":550400,"current_yield_t_ha":2.3322033898305086,"area_cap_ha":236000,"cap_classification":"Current-area envelope; intensification rather than expansion","area_targets_2035":{"Low":236000,"Base":236000,"High":236000},"potential_yield_t_ha":6,"conversion_factor":1,"conversion_basis":"Made-tea production and export demand in MT","maturity_lag_years":3,"priority_counties":["Kericho","Bomet","Nandi","Nyamira","Kisii","Kakamega","Bungoma","Kiambu","Murang'a","Nyeri","Kirinyaga","Embu","Tharaka-Nithi","Meru"],"notes":"Tea Board strategic plan defines the main tea-growing county blocks. Demand uses global tea consumption growth; climate affects supply, not the existence of demand.","sources":[{"name":"Tea Board of Kenya Strategic Plan 2023–2027","url":"https://www.teaboard.or.ke/images/downloads/TBK-Strategic-Plan-2023-2027.pdf"}],"demand":"Export demand follows global black-tea consumption growth: 0.8% Low, 1.8% Base, and 2.8% High per year.","supply":"Area remains at 236,000 ha; growth comes from yield intensification toward 6 t/ha made-tea equivalent.","key_caveat":"The model assumes market share can be maintained and does not reduce underlying demand for climate shocks.","demand_growth_scenarios":{"Low":0.008,"Base":0.018,"High":0.028}},{"id":"cotton","name":"Cotton/Textile","role":"Domestic industrial / apparel export pull","demand_metric":"Domestic spinning requirement","demand_unit":"MT lint","demand_method":"Installed-capacity utilization ramp","base_year":2025,"base_value":8880,"current_area_ha":16469,"current_raw_production_mt":6234,"current_yield_t_ha":0.378529358188111,"area_cap_ha":350000,"cap_classification":"Official KALRO documented cultivation/AEZ envelope; not a GIS suitability map","area_targets_2035":{"Low":16469,"Base":96125,"High":350000},"potential_yield_t_ha":2.5,"conversion_factor":0.3343888354186718,"conversion_basis":"2024 empirical AFA lint outturn = 11,268 bales×185kg / 6,234 MT seed cotton","maturity_lag_years":0,"priority_counties":["Lamu","Meru","Busia","Siaya","Homa Bay","plus other LM3/LM4/L3/L4 counties below 1,400m"],"notes":"KALRO: commercial varieties perform below 1,400m in LM3, LM4, L3 and L4; avoid saline/waterlogged soils. 350,000 ha is an official documented cultivation envelope, not a fresh GIS suitability estimate.","sources":[{"name":"KALRO Cotton Production Manual","url":"https://keep.kalro.org/appfiles/media/vc_files/COTTON_MANUAL.pdf"},{"name":"AFA Yearbook of Statistics","url":"https://www.afa.go.ke/wp-content/uploads/2025/08/New-Yearbook-25_.pdf"}],"demand":"Demand is an industrial-capacity utilization model rather than a consumption CAGR. Domestic spinning requirement rises from current utilization toward 60%, 80%, or 100% of installed capacity.","supply":"Area expands toward scenario targets inside a 350,000 ha cultivation envelope; yield rises toward 2.5 t/ha seed cotton. Seed cotton is converted to lint using the empirical 2024 lint outturn.","key_caveat":"Demand is capped by today’s installed spinning capacity unless future mill investment is added explicitly."},{"id":"palm-oil","name":"Palm Oil","role":"Import substitution — edible/industrial oil","demand_metric":"Palm-oil products import demand","demand_unit":"MT crude-palm-oil equivalent","demand_method":"AFA 2024 base × existing structural demand index","base_year":2024,"base_value":793539,"current_area_ha":0,"current_raw_production_mt":0,"current_yield_t_ha":0,"area_cap_ha":15000,"cap_classification":"Analyst planning envelope; no national suitable-area hectares found","area_targets_2035":{"Low":0,"Base":5000,"High":15000},"potential_yield_t_ha":25,"conversion_factor":0.22,"conversion_basis":"25 t FFB/ha midpoint within high-yield range; 22% CPO extraction (FAO conservative)","maturity_lag_years":4,"priority_counties":["Busia","Homa Bay","Kwale","Kisumu"],"notes":"AFA 2024 palm-oil-products base replaces the broader USDA anchor in the legacy model. KIPPRA/KALRO identify the priority counties and emphasize fragmented suitable land.","sources":[{"name":"AFA Yearbook of Statistics","url":"https://www.afa.go.ke/wp-content/uploads/2025/08/New-Yearbook-25_.pdf"},{"name":"KIPPRA Palm Oil Sector Analysis","url":"https://kippra.or.ke/unlocking-employment-opportunities-in-kenyas-palm-oil-sector/"},{"name":"FAO Palm Oil Processing Guidance","url":"https://www.fao.org/4/y4355e/y4355e04.htm"}],"demand":"AFA’s 2024 palm-oil-products import base is grown using the structural edible-oils demand index.","supply":"New commercial area expands toward 5,000 ha in Base and 15,000 ha in High. A four-year maturity lag delays bearing area; mature yield is 25 t FFB/ha and CPO extraction is 22%.","key_caveat":"Suitable land is fragmented and the area envelope is a planning assumption; palm remains overwhelmingly supply-constrained.","oil_content":1.0,"extraction_efficiency":0.22,"refining_loss":0.0,"postharvest_loss":0.03,"area_adjustment_speed":0.2,"autonomous_yield_growth":0.008,"attainable_share":0.82,"adoption_midpoint":2031,"adoption_speed":0.6,"pe_status":"calibrated_sensitivity_layer","pe_note":"Physical supply follows the supplied PE identity in the interactive calculator. QUAIDS, Nerlove and price-transmission coefficients require external estimation datasets and are therefore not claimed as econometrically estimated inside this static HTML."},{"id":"soybean","name":"Soybean","role":"Food/feed + edible-oil import substitution","demand_metric":"Soybean-oil import demand","demand_unit":"MT soybean oil","demand_method":"AFA 2024 base × existing structural demand index","base_year":2024,"base_value":6546,"current_area_ha":11313,"current_raw_production_mt":10126,"current_yield_t_ha":0.895076460708919,"area_cap_ha":157000,"cap_classification":"Historic reported national envelope; moderate confidence / GIS refresh needed","area_targets_2035":{"Low":11313,"Base":47100,"High":110000},"potential_yield_t_ha":1.5,"conversion_factor":0.171,"conversion_basis":"19% high-oil seed threshold (AFA) × 90% analyst mill-recovery assumption","maturity_lag_years":0,"priority_counties":["Bungoma","Kakamega","Busia","Siaya","Homa Bay","Trans Nzoia","Uasin Gishu"],"notes":"Official 2023/2024 soybean-oil imports now activate the model. Area cap is dated/moderate-confidence and should be replaced by current GIS suitability hectares when available.","sources":[{"name":"AFA Yearbook of Statistics","url":"https://www.afa.go.ke/wp-content/uploads/2025/08/New-Yearbook-25_.pdf"},{"name":"AFA Crop/Seed Specification","url":"https://www.afa.go.ke/download/6622/?tmstv=1767862361"},{"name":"KALRO Soybean Production Guidance","url":"https://kalroerepository.kalro.org/server/api/core/bitstreams/b8246803-a01b-4125-88a3-0edc614739ab/content"}],"demand":"AFA soybean-oil imports provide the demand anchor, grown using the structural edible-oils demand index.","supply":"Area expands toward 47,100 ha in Base; yield rises toward 1.5 t/ha. Seed is converted to oil at 17.1%.","key_caveat":"The national area envelope is dated and should be refreshed with GIS-based suitability estimates.","oil_content":0.19,"extraction_efficiency":0.9,"refining_loss":0.0,"postharvest_loss":0.06,"area_adjustment_speed":0.36,"autonomous_yield_growth":0.012,"attainable_share":0.8,"adoption_midpoint":2030,"adoption_speed":0.75,"pe_status":"calibrated_sensitivity_layer","pe_note":"Physical supply follows the supplied PE identity in the interactive calculator. QUAIDS, Nerlove and price-transmission coefficients require external estimation datasets and are therefore not claimed as econometrically estimated inside this static HTML.","latest_observed_area_ha":375911,"latest_observed_production_mt":455321.61,"latest_observed_yield_t_ha":1.21,"latest_observation_note":"2025 AFA Yearbook of Statistics 2026 observation; forecast baseline remains unchanged pending base-year reconciliation because the series shows a major break versus 2023."},{"id":"avocado","name":"Avocado","role":"Domestic food + export","demand_metric":"Total marketable avocado demand proxy","demand_unit":"MT fruit","demand_method":"Existing multi-factor production/demand proxy","base_year":2024,"base_value":848122,"current_area_ha":36118,"current_raw_production_mt":848122,"current_yield_t_ha":23.481975746165347,"area_cap_ha":800000,"cap_classification":"Conservative planning envelope; reported larger suitability estimate not treated as hard official GIS cap","area_targets_2035":{"Low":36118,"Base":250000,"High":800000},"potential_yield_t_ha":30,"conversion_factor":1,"conversion_basis":"Fruit production and total-demand proxy in MT","maturity_lag_years":3,"priority_counties":["Murang'a","Kisii","Kiambu","Nyamira","Meru","Embu"],"notes":"KALRO: preferably >=1,000 mm rainfall; deep permeable free-draining soil; pH about 5.5-6.5. Demand-bound area check is essential because large theoretical expansion would overshoot the modeled market.","sources":[{"name":"KALRO Climate-Smart Agronomic Practices for Avocado","url":"https://navcdp.kalro.org/docs/avocado/Climate%20Smart%20Agronomic%20Practices%20for%20Avocado.pdf"},{"name":"AFA Good Practice Guide for Avocado","url":"https://www.afa.go.ke/wp-content/uploads/2025/05/Good-Practice-Guide-Avocado-.pdf"},{"name":"AFA Yearbook of Statistics","url":"https://www.afa.go.ke/wp-content/uploads/2025/08/New-Yearbook-25_.pdf"}],"demand":"A multi-factor domestic-plus-export demand proxy is anchored to total 2024 marketable production. Population and income are the dominant live drivers.","supply":"Area expands toward 250,000 ha in Base with a three-year lag for new plantings. Yield rises toward 30 t/ha.","key_caveat":"Using production as a demand proxy risks overstating the market that can absorb large theoretical expansion."},{"id":"macadamia","name":"Macadamia","role":"Export demand","demand_metric":"Macadamia export demand in raw-nut equivalent","demand_unit":"MT raw-nut equivalent","demand_method":"2024 export RNE × 3%/5%/7% global-demand scenarios","base_year":2024,"base_value":47865,"current_area_ha":10185,"current_raw_production_mt":53968.16,"current_yield_t_ha":5.2987884143348065,"area_cap_ha":25462.5,"cap_classification":"Planning envelope; no national GIS suitability hectares found","area_targets_2035":{"Low":10185,"Base":15277.5,"High":25462.5},"potential_yield_t_ha":15.1,"conversion_factor":1,"conversion_basis":"Demand converted to raw-nut equivalent using 35% KALRO-centered kernel recovery assumption","maturity_lag_years":5,"priority_counties":["Embu","Meru","Kiambu","Tharaka Nithi","Murang'a","Kirinyaga","Nyeri","expansion: Uasin Gishu","Trans Nzoia","Machakos"],"notes":"Corrects the legacy unit mismatch that added shelled and in-shell export tonnes and compared them directly with raw-nut production.","sources":[{"name":"AFA Macadamia Sector Guidance","url":"https://www.afa.go.ke/macadamia-nuts-oil-crops/"},{"name":"KALRO Macadamia Production Guidance","url":"https://kalroerepository.kalro.org/bitstreams/4241e3d0-f0b3-4f50-8df5-209b906b8064/download"}],"demand":"2024 exports are converted to raw-nut equivalent, then grown at 3% Low, 5% Base, or 7% High annually.","supply":"Area expands toward 15,277.5 ha in Base with a five-year maturity lag; yield rises toward 15.1 t/ha.","key_caveat":"The demand growth rates are scenarios, while the area envelope is a planning assumption rather than a national GIS cap.","demand_growth_scenarios":{"Low":0.03,"Base":0.05,"High":0.07}},{"id":"cashew","name":"Cashew","role":"Domestic processing + export","demand_metric":"Raw-cashew processing demand proxy","demand_unit":"MT raw cashew nuts","demand_method":"Existing multi-factor domestic/processing demand proxy","base_year":2024,"base_value":7803,"current_area_ha":24246,"current_raw_production_mt":7803,"current_yield_t_ha":0.321826280623608,"area_cap_ha":70000,"cap_classification":"KALRO revival/program envelope; not an independent GIS suitability estimate","area_targets_2035":{"Low":24246,"Base":52500,"High":70000},"potential_yield_t_ha":4.15,"conversion_factor":1,"conversion_basis":"Raw-cashew demand proxy and raw production in MT","maturity_lag_years":3,"priority_counties":["Kilifi","Kwale","Lamu","Tana River","Mombasa","Taita Taveta","Tharaka Nithi","expansion: Makueni","Embu","Meru"],"notes":"KALRO reports 45,000 MT/year installed raw-cashew processing capacity in historical sector material; the 70,000-ha envelope is a revival/program target, not GIS-derived suitability.","sources":[{"name":"AFA Cashew Sector Guidance","url":"https://www.afa.go.ke/cashew-nuts-nuts-oil-crops/"},{"name":"KALRO Cashew Sector/Production Guidance","url":"https://kalroerepository.kalro.org/items/3d9fdd35-a182-4cfd-a954-07d268417b18/full"}],"demand":"A multi-factor domestic-processing/export demand proxy is anchored to 2024 raw-cashew output.","supply":"Area expands toward 52,500 ha in Base with a three-year maturity lag; yield closes toward 4.15 t/ha.","key_caveat":"The 70,000 ha envelope is a revival/program target, not an independent suitability estimate."}],"yearly":[{"crop":"Sunflower","scenario":"Low","year":2025,"demand":9217.47,"demand_unit":"MT sunflower oil","planned_area_ha":40675,"bearing_area_ha":40675,"area_cap_ha":120000,"yield_raw_t_ha":1.0150706822372464,"raw_production_mt":41288,"conversion_factor":0.342,"supply_capacity_mt":14120.496000000001,"area_required_ha":26551.517188206417,"capturable_demand_mt":9217.47,"unmet_demand_mt":0,"surplus_capacity_mt":4903.026000000002,"demand_coverage":1,"binding_constraint":"Demand/market","model_note":"Planning envelope; no national GIS suitability hectares found"},{"crop":"Sunflower","scenario":"Low","year":2026,"demand":8609.405616524136,"demand_unit":"MT sunflower oil","planned_area_ha":40675,"bearing_area_ha":40675,"area_cap_ha":120000,"yield_raw_t_ha":1.0150706822372464,"raw_production_mt":41288,"conversion_factor":0.342,"supply_capacity_mt":14120.496000000001,"area_required_ha":24799.948489919847,"capturable_demand_mt":8609.405616524136,"unmet_demand_mt":0,"surplus_capacity_mt":5511.090383475865,"demand_coverage":1,"binding_constraint":"Demand/market","model_note":"Planning envelope; no national GIS suitability hectares found"},{"crop":"Sunflower","scenario":"Low","year":2027,"demand":8611.92226694198,"demand_unit":"MT sunflower oil","planned_area_ha":40675,"bearing_area_ha":40675,"area_cap_ha":120000,"yield_raw_t_ha":1.0150706822372464,"raw_production_mt":41288,"conversion_factor":0.342,"supply_capacity_mt":14120.496000000001,"area_required_ha":24807.19786386151,"capturable_demand_mt":8611.92226694198,"unmet_demand_mt":0,"surplus_capacity_mt":5508.573733058021,"demand_coverage":1,"binding_constraint":"Demand/market","model_note":"Planning envelope; no national GIS suitability hectares found"},{"crop":"Sunflower","scenario":"Low","year":2028,"demand":8643.823531786962,"demand_unit":"MT sunflower oil","planned_area_ha":40675,"bearing_area_ha":40675,"area_cap_ha":120000,"yield_raw_t_ha":1.0150706822372464,"raw_production_mt":41288,"conversion_factor":0.342,"supply_capacity_mt":14120.496000000001,"area_required_ha":24899.09151600869,"capturable_demand_mt":8643.823531786962,"unmet_demand_mt":0,"surplus_capacity_mt":5476.672468213039,"demand_coverage":1,"binding_constraint":"Demand/market","model_note":"Planning envelope; no national GIS suitability hectares found"},{"crop":"Sunflower","scenario":"Low","year":2029,"demand":8675.842968936242,"demand_unit":"MT sunflower oil","planned_area_ha":40675,"bearing_area_ha":40675,"area_cap_ha":120000,"yield_raw_t_ha":1.0150706822372464,"raw_production_mt":41288,"conversion_factor":0.342,"supply_capacity_mt":14120.496000000001,"area_required_ha":24991.3255711047,"capturable_demand_mt":8675.842968936242,"unmet_demand_mt":0,"surplus_capacity_mt":5444.653031063759,"demand_coverage":1,"binding_constraint":"Demand/market","model_note":"Planning envelope; no national GIS suitability hectares found"},{"crop":"Sunflower","scenario":"Low","year":2030,"demand":8707.981016137148,"demand_unit":"MT sunflower oil","planned_area_ha":40675,"bearing_area_ha":40675,"area_cap_ha":120000,"yield_raw_t_ha":1.0150706822372464,"raw_production_mt":41288,"conversion_factor":0.342,"supply_capacity_mt":14120.496000000001,"area_required_ha":25083.901290108963,"capturable_demand_mt":8707.981016137148,"unmet_demand_mt":0,"surplus_capacity_mt":5412.514983862853,"demand_coverage":1,"binding_constraint":"Demand/market","model_note":"Planning envelope; no national GIS suitability hectares found"},{"crop":"Sunflower","scenario":"Low","year":2031,"demand":8734.890491719132,"demand_unit":"MT sunflower oil","planned_area_ha":40675,"bearing_area_ha":40675,"area_cap_ha":120000,"yield_raw_t_ha":1.0150706822372464,"raw_production_mt":41288,"conversion_factor":0.342,"supply_capacity_mt":14120.496000000001,"area_required_ha":25161.41577113691,"capturable_demand_mt":8734.890491719132,"unmet_demand_mt":0,"surplus_capacity_mt":5385.605508280869,"demand_coverage":1,"binding_constraint":"Demand/market","model_note":"Planning envelope; no national GIS suitability hectares found"},{"crop":"Sunflower","scenario":"Low","year":2032,"demand":8761.883123187052,"demand_unit":"MT sunflower oil","planned_area_ha":40675,"bearing_area_ha":40675,"area_cap_ha":120000,"yield_raw_t_ha":1.0150706822372464,"raw_production_mt":41288,"conversion_factor":0.342,"supply_capacity_mt":14120.496000000001,"area_required_ha":25239.169788060794,"capturable_demand_mt":8761.883123187052,"unmet_demand_mt":0,"surplus_capacity_mt":5358.612876812949,"demand_coverage":1,"binding_constraint":"Demand/market","model_note":"Planning envelope; no national GIS suitability hectares found"},{"crop":"Sunflower","scenario":"Low","year":2033,"demand":8788.959167509918,"demand_unit":"MT sunflower oil","planned_area_ha":40675,"bearing_area_ha":40675,"area_cap_ha":120000,"yield_raw_t_ha":1.0150706822372464,"raw_production_mt":41288,"conversion_factor":0.342,"supply_capacity_mt":14120.496000000001,"area_required_ha":25317.164081096435,"capturable_demand_mt":8788.959167509918,"unmet_demand_mt":0,"surplus_capacity_mt":5331.536832490083,"demand_coverage":1,"binding_constraint":"Demand/market","model_note":"Planning envelope; 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